A Collective Defense Against Adversarial Capital
How clear definitions, automated workflows and sector-specific incentives can protect the U.S. Defense Industrial Base from foreign influence
Adversaries seek leverage over the U.S. Defense Industrial Base through illicit means like espionage and through legal investment and partnerships. In March 2024, Quantifind and Deloitte convened leaders from government, banking, investment, think tanks, nonprofits and technology at the first Convergence event on adversarial capital. Participants largely agreed on three requirements for an effective defense against Foreign Ownership, Control or Influence (FOCI). These are clear FOCI definitions, automated detection workflows, and incentives and policies that motivate every sector to act. This paper offers specific, actionable recommendations for each requirement. It is aimed at analysts and AI tool developers screening for FOCI today, and at policymakers shaping the regulations of tomorrow.
- FOCI screening needs a shared, computable definition. Without clear operational definitions, screening cannot be objective or defensible.
- Influence flows through relationships. FOCI risk can sit several degrees from a vendor, anywhere on a spectrum from hard ownership to soft influence.
- Screening once is not enough. A company can start clean and become compromised after investment, which makes continuous monitoring the default.
- Incentives move industry faster than penalties. Rewarding self-screening and helping partners remediate risk drives more cooperation than punishment.
From Definitions to Policy
Background
The espionage, supply chain and economic threats posed by FOCI, and the stakeholders responsible for screening.
Standardized FOCI Definition
A relationship-based risk framework, test cases and a tiered approach to analyst decisions.
Automated Workflows
Why continuous monitoring, validated machine learning, open-source data and explainable AI are essential.
Incentives and Policies
Sector-specific regulations for investors, banks and industry, and the case for self-screening.
Potential Failure Modes
The risks of a poorly implemented strategy, from unfair bias to analyst alert overload.
Conclusion
Why the window for realistic FOCI standards is open now.
Appendix, Definition Components
Country associations, industry types, relationship types and correlated risk behaviors.
